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Partisan trust, inflation, and abortion predict 2024 US presidential election outcome, with Biden/Harris likely to win.
The goal was to predict the 2024 US Presidential Election using a model based on political economy and security. The researchers found that factors like partisan trust, inflation, abortion rates, immigration numbers, and prison population growth can predict the outcome. The model suggests that an increase in inflation decreases the chances of the current party staying in power, while increases in the other factors favor the party in power candidate winning. This means that based on the model, Kamala Harris is predicted to win the election.