The natural rate of unemployment in the U.S. has increased since the recession, likely due to lasting effects from disruptive economic shocks. A search and matching model shows that equilibrium unemployment is determined by the Beveridge curve and Job Creation curve. The natural rate has risen by 0.6 to 1.9 percentage points, with a current estimate of 6.25 percent. Factors like labor market mismatch and extended unemployment benefits have contributed, but only a small portion of the increase is expected to persist beyond five years.