Arctic Climate Simulations Highly Sensitive to Initial Conditions, Threatening Accurate Forecasting
The study looked at how a regional Arctic climate model is affected by initial and boundary conditions. They used a high-resolution model driven by observational data. They found that the Arctic simulations were sensitive to uncertainties in initial conditions, with changes in atmospheric structures due to both internal processes and physical parameterizations. The study also showed that changes in sea ice thickness had a significant impact on atmospheric structures. The research suggests that the Arctic climate model is influenced by both initial conditions and boundary conditions, with a weaker constraint on synoptic scales compared to mid-latitude simulations.