The article explores how changes in commodity prices affect inflation in large industrial countries. By analyzing a two-country model, the researchers found that monetary shocks can lead to fluctuations in commodity prices, which in turn impact general inflation rates. They developed country-specific commodity price indexes and observed that low inflation is linked to low commodity prices. Additionally, movements in commodity prices often precede changes in inflation rates, aiding in predicting inflation turning points. Overall, commodity prices play a significant role in forecasting inflation trends in industrial countries.