New method reveals true uncertainty of pollution damage costs, changing environmental policies.
The article presents a simple method to estimate the uncertainty of damage costs from pollution. Instead of using complex calculations, the researchers show that uncertainties can be calculated using a straightforward solution. They analyze the uncertainties in damage costs from air pollutants and find that the distribution is lognormal, with a geometric standard deviation of approximately 3. This means that the confidence interval is multiplicative. When adding up damage costs from multiple pollutants, the total error can be smaller than the individual errors. The researchers also provide a simple approximation for estimating the total damage cost, which is useful for practical applications.