Money targets in Kenya lead to increased macroeconomic volatility, study finds.
The article explores how money targets can be used in analyzing monetary policy in low-income countries like Kenya. The researchers developed a framework that considers different ways of setting money targets, such as using money demand forecasts or simple money growth rules. They found that in Kenya, money targets are aligned with money demand forecasts, but have not consistently influenced monetary policy. Target misses mainly result from shocks to money demand. The study suggests that sticking closely to money targets can lead to greater economic instability. This model-based approach can help improve monetary policy analysis in low-income countries with money-targeting frameworks.