New method attributes climate change to greenhouse gases, changing future predictions.
Scientists have developed a new method to detect and attribute climate change using energy balance models (EBMs) instead of traditional general circulation models (GCMs). By fitting EBMs to GCM output, they can estimate responses to different forcings. Applying this technique to historical climate simulations, they found that changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols can be detected in the observed temperature record. The warming from greenhouse gases outweighs the cooling from aerosols, with little contribution from natural factors. This new approach allows for more GCMs to be included in climate change analysis, improving our understanding of the causes of global warming.