New risk management model revolutionizes stock market stability predictions!
The article discusses how to manage extreme risks in calm and volatile markets using a type of model called extreme value theory (EVT). By focusing on the tails of asset price distributions, EVT models can accurately predict extreme market risks. The researchers found that conditional EVT models provide more precise measures of risk compared to traditional approaches like GARCH models. EVT is shown to be the superior method for calculating Value-at-Risk (VaR) for both standard and extreme risk levels in stock markets.