Rising Default Rates Linked to Decrease in Costs, Not Risk Composition
The study analyzed credit card delinquency and personal bankruptcy using data from credit card accounts. It found that the likelihood of defaulting on credit card payments increased significantly between 1995 and 1997, even after accounting for changes in borrower risk and economic factors. This increase in default rates was not mainly due to changes in the types of borrowers or credit limits, but rather to a decrease in the costs associated with defaulting. The study suggests that traditional models of default risk may have overlooked this important factor.