Financial constraints on hedging drive commodity prices, impacting goods markets.
The article explores how limits to financial arbitrage can affect hedging by firms in commodity markets. Producers who hedge using futures can face higher costs when their hedging demand increases, impacting spot prices. Speculators play a role in meeting producers' hedging needs, but their risk capacity can also influence prices. Data from oil and gas markets show that producers' default risk forecasts, futures risk-premia, and spot prices are interconnected, especially when speculative activity is low. This suggests that constraints on financial arbitrage can lead to constraints on hedging, impacting prices in both financial and goods markets.