Business, Management and Accounting
8 years ago

Financial statement analysis predicts real GDP growth and stock market returns.

SSRN Electronic Journal
Taking the Pulse of the Real Economy Using Financial Statement Analysis: Implications for Macro Forecasting and Stock Valuation
Yaniv Konchitchki, Panos N. Patatoukas

Paper Summary

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Financial statement analysis of the top 100 largest firms can help predict future economic growth. By looking at accounting data and stock market returns, researchers found that these indicators can forecast real GDP growth. Stock market returns, especially annual ones, are powerful predictors. Professional forecasters adjust their predictions based on these indicators, but they could improve by considering accounting profitability data. This data can also help in valuing stocks. Overall, analyzing financial statements can provide valuable insights for understanding and predicting the real economy.