Implied volatility holds key to predicting future market fluctuations.
The study looked at how well implied volatility predicts future stock market volatility. They used data from S&P 500 and S&P 100 index options from 2000 to 2006. The researchers found that implied volatility is a good predictor of future volatility, unlike other methods like historical or conditional volatility estimates. They also discovered that a trading strategy based on implied volatility can lead to losses, suggesting that constant volatility models may not be accurate. Overall, the results show that implied volatility contains valuable information for predicting future market volatility.