Oil futures prices are not very accurate predictors of the spot price of oil compared to no-change forecasts. This is because the variability of futures prices around spot prices, known as the oil futures spread, is influenced by the convenience yield of oil inventories. Uncertainty about future oil supply shortages can cause the spread to decrease, leading to an immediate increase in the real spot price of oil due to higher precautionary demand. Therefore, fluctuations in the price of crude oil can be indicated by the negative oil futures spread, showing how shifts in uncertainty about future oil supply shortages impact the real spot price of oil.