Implied Volatility Beats Models in Forecasting Future Market Volatility!
The study looked at different ways to predict how volatile the stock market will be in the future. They compared using implied volatility (based on market prices) to using models to make these predictions. The researchers found that implied volatility is better at predicting future volatility than the models they tested. However, implied volatility doesn't give any extra information beyond what the models already provide about how volatile the market will be. But, implied volatility does give some extra information about how much the volatility will change in the future.