Extreme Rainfall Surges Threaten Mid-Atlantic Communities as Climate Shifts
The researchers focused on predicting how climate change will affect rainfall in Pennsylvania. They used a method called self-organizing maps to make detailed rainfall forecasts for the years 2046 to 2065. By comparing two different ways of making predictions, they found that including water vapor changes from global warming led to more accurate results. Overall, their forecasts show that winter and annual rainfall is expected to increase, but not as much as originally predicted by large-scale climate models. Summer rainfall changes differed more, based on the method used. The new method helped reduce uncertainties between different climate models, showing that differences in how models handle rainfall play a big role in their predictions. Winter rainfall changes were related to shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation, hinting that the new method captures these patterns better.