Pegging to Dollar or Euro Drives Oil Currencies Away from Equilibrium
The article investigates how pegging currencies to the euro or dollar affects the real exchange rate for oil and commodity currencies. The researchers found that real exchange rates are influenced by commodity prices in the long term, with oil prices having a slightly smaller impact. They also discovered that misalignments in exchange rates are not significantly linked to the type of exchange rate regime countries use. However, for pegged currencies, the size of misalignments depends on whether they are pegged to the euro or dollar. When the dollar or euro is overvalued, pegged currencies tend to be overvalued as well, and vice versa. This means that pegged currencies can be pushed away from their equilibrium by fluctuations in the anchor currencies.