Raising Interest Rates Could Boost Inflation, Challenging Economic Orthodoxy
Increasing the inflation target in a New Keynesian model may actually require raising, not lowering, the nominal interest rate in the short term. This unexpected relationship between interest rates and inflation after a nominal shock is called Neo-Fisherianism. The likelihood of observing Neo-Fisherianism in the model increases with the persistence of the inflation target change and the flexibility of prices. This phenomenon is driven by the forward-looking nature of the model, and making the model less forward-looking reduces the chances of Neo-Fisherianism occurring.