Implied volatility forecasts outperform GARCH in predicting stock return volatility.
The article compares different methods for predicting how volatile stock returns will be in the future. The researchers looked at implied volatility, which is a measure of how much investors think stock prices will change, as well as other models like GARCH and realized volatility. They found that while implied volatility alone is not the best predictor, a combination of GARCH, implied, and realized volatility models is the most accurate for forecasting stock return volatility. This means that by using a mix of these methods, we can better predict how much stock prices will go up and down in the future.