The study analyzed changes in ecological footprint and capacity in Jilin Province from 1996 to 2010. The results showed that the ecological footprint per person increased initially, then decreased, while ecological capacity per person decreased steadily. This led to a rise in ecological deficit, indicating unsustainable development. The prediction model suggests that without intervention, the ecological footprint per person will continue to rise, while ecological capacity will decrease further, worsening the situation. To address this, Jilin Province needs to change its economic development model, focus on innovation, and improve the quality of life for its residents.