Unveiling the Economic Rollercoaster: Long-Term Growth vs. Short-Term Fluctuations
The article discusses how economists separate long-term economic growth from short-term fluctuations like recessions. They break down total output into two parts: the trend, which shows long-term changes, and the cycle, which represents short-term deviations. Monetary shocks and central bank policies can cause temporary shifts in the economy. While the business cycle is no longer seen as strictly periodic, the terminology remains. Seasonal variations could also affect output but are often removed in adjusted data like GDP.