Wrongly calibrated risk models could lead to undercapitalized banking system
Banks in India need to figure out how much money they should keep aside to cover risks in their investments. The Reserve Bank of India wants them to use a method called Value-at-Risk (VaR) to do this. The study looked at different ways to estimate VaR for foreign exchange rate risks in banks. They found that when returns are not normal, using a normal distribution to estimate VaR can lead to underestimating the risk. The most accurate VaR estimates came from using a model based on Student’s t-distribution.