China's off-balance-sheet spending may lead to permanent decline in GDP.
China's fiscal stimulus program in 2009-2010 led to increased spending by local governments through off-balance-sheet companies. This spending, which continues today, has boosted investment rates and lowered the current account surplus. However, it may harm overall capital allocation efficiency and lead to a permanent decline in productivity and GDP growth. The program was financed by borrowing and has been used for commercial projects. Monetary policy adjustments were also made during this period to support the stimulus.