New method accurately forecasts air quality peaks with uncertainty estimation.
The Ensemble forecast of analyses (EFA) method combines data assimilation and ensemble forecasting to predict future analyses based on current observations. By using a linear combination of ensemble forecasts, EFA can produce accurate predictions of upcoming analyses for various variables and locations. Previous methods lacked uncertainty estimations, but a new approach using a minimax filter now provides both accurate forecasts and uncertainty estimates. This method outperforms traditional models in forecasting peak ozone concentration fields over Europe.