The article explores how different monetary policies can impact welfare in the face of anticipated and unanticipated shocks. The researchers show that simple monetary policy rules may be better than optimized ones in some cases. They also find that anticipated cost-push shocks can lead to higher welfare losses than unanticipated ones. Additionally, the study suggests that the optimal monetary policy for an oil-dependent economy may involve a sharp and prolonged output slump. The researchers also introduce a new method for solving dynamic models with optimal policy and anticipated shocks.