New method reveals hidden risk aversion in decision-making under uncertainty.
A new method called the tradeoff method has been developed to figure out how people value different outcomes when making decisions under risk or uncertainty. This method can determine these values even when the probabilities of outcomes are unclear. Although it may require a few more questions and more complex scenarios, the tradeoff method is robust against misunderstandings about probabilities, which often lead to mistakes in decision-making. When tested with money and life-duration outcomes, the tradeoff method showed that people are more risk-averse when it comes to life duration, but their overall preferences for different outcomes remain consistent.