Economics, Econometrics and Finance
7 years ago

New Indicator Predicts Iran's Industrial Business Cycles with Impressive Accuracy

DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)
Developing Composite Leading Indicators to Forecast Industrial Business Cycles in Iran
Hadi Nasiri, Kaveh Taghizadeh, B. Amiri, V Shaghaghi Shahri

Paper Summary

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The article develops a composite leading indicator to predict industrial business cycles in Iran. By analyzing 13 economic indicators, including production index and import value, a reliable indicator was created. The composite indicator accurately reflects fluctuations in Iran's industry and can forecast business cycles up to 4 periods ahead, with an average accuracy of 3.2 seasons.