Uncertainty in Decision-Making: How Option Values Impact Future Preferences
The article discusses decision-making when the outcomes are uncertain, focusing on the concept of option value. It explores how future preferences affect the benefits of an action and introduces dynamic elements to decision-making under uncertainty. The researchers show that the difference between option value and expected consumer's surplus depends on factors like risk aversion and covariance between preferences and consumer's surplus. They also highlight that maximizing expected value can lead to biased decisions when faced with irreversible actions and uncertain future benefits. The study emphasizes the importance of considering convexity assumptions in analyzing decision biases.