Unpredictable Volatility: Financial Forecasting Models Fail to Deliver Consistent Results
The article explores different models to predict how prices of gold, stock market indexes, and currency exchange rates will change in the future. They tested various models like ARCH and GARCH on different time periods to see which one was best at forecasting volatility. The results showed that no single model consistently outperformed the others, but the ARCH model did well in predicting gold price volatility using the mean absolute error method.