The article analyzes historic oil prices to predict future prices. By studying data from 1861 to 2012, the researchers found that oil prices tend to revert to a certain level based on supply costs. When supply and demand are imbalanced, prices fluctuate within a specific range. Short-term demand for oil is not very responsive to price changes, while long-term supply elasticity has decreased over time. The researchers developed equations to forecast future oil prices under normal conditions. They also considered how unexpected events could impact oil prices.