Indian commodity futures market inefficient for predicting future spot prices.
The article examines market efficiency and price discovery in the Indian commodity market. They studied eight different commodities using statistical methods like restricted cointegration and VECM. The results show that while futures prices are linked to spot prices, they are not efficient at predicting future spot prices. The Indian commodity market is found to be thinly traded and not efficient or unbiased. Short-term biases were detected in the futures market, indicating informational efficiency. Past prices of spot and futures were significant in predicting future prices. Futures prices are crucial indicators of commodity price movements. Traders can use futures prices to make profits by adjusting spot market prices. Understanding these markets is important for policymakers aiming to stabilize financial markets.