Italian credit crunches lead to more severe economic downturns, study finds.
The article examines business and credit cycles in Italy from 1861 to 2013. It finds that medium-term credit cycles have the biggest impact on fluctuations. Credit and business cycles are loosely linked in the medium term but closely connected in the short term. During medium cycles, economic downturns caused by credit issues are more severe. When there is a credit shock, the GDP responds more strongly during the recessionary phase of the credit cycle.