Kenya's Extreme Rainfall Predictions Unveil Future Flood Risks
Climate change has caused extreme rainfall in Kenya, leading to deadly floods. To predict these events, Extreme Value Theory was used on rainfall data from 1901-2016. The Gumbel distribution was best for extreme rainfall, while the Exponential distribution worked for lower levels. Return levels increase with longer periods, with GPD giving higher levels for 10 and 20 years, and GEVD for 50 and 100 years. The models fit the data well.