New model predicts financial risk, revolutionizing economic forecasting worldwide.
The article discusses how to model financial risk using government bond interest rates and credit ratings. By analyzing data from 2000 to 2016, the researchers found that dynamic factor models can improve yield curve forecasts and outperform other forecasting methods. They identified level, slope, and curvature factors underlying the yield curve, with evidence of a global level factor. The study suggests that using multiple factors is more effective for forecasting financial risk.