New method improves accuracy of short-term rainfall forecasts for flash flood warnings.
The researchers developed a new method to improve short-term rainfall forecasts in Korea. They combined multiple rainfall forecasts to create a more accurate ensemble forecast. By using a weighted average method, they found that just six ensemble members were enough to make a reliable forecast. Adding more members did not significantly improve accuracy. The ensemble forecast was better than a single forecast, and the weighted average method was more effective than a simple average.