SARIMA Model Accurately Forecasts Monthly Temperatures in Zaria, Nigeria
The researchers used a method called Box-Jenkins Methodology to analyze temperature data from Zaria, Nigeria, between 1993-2012. They tested the data for stationarity and compared different models to find the best one for forecasting. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model (1,0,1)(0,1,1) 12 was found to be the most reliable for predicting monthly average temperatures in Zaria. This model could be useful for researchers in hydrology and meteorology.