New model predicts extreme rainfall in Tanzania, aiding disaster preparedness.
Extreme rainfall events can cause a lot of damage to agriculture, infrastructure, and people. Scientists in Tanzania studied how to predict these extreme rainfalls. They found that using a special type of statistical model called Poisson-generalized Pareto distribution worked best for predicting extreme rainfall in Tanzania. The models were able to estimate how much rain to expect for different return periods, and the predictions got wider as the return period increased.