Analysts' forecasts impact market response to earnings surprises.
Analysts' forecasts of cash flow and earnings can tell us how reliable and important a company's reported earnings are. When analysts predict moderate levels of cash flow compared to earnings, the earnings are more likely to be consistent and valuable. On the other hand, extreme cash flow forecasts can make earnings less reliable and less important. The market reacts most strongly to earnings surprises when cash flow forecasts are moderate. This relationship between cash flow and earnings forecasts remains even after considering other factors like accruals.