The global economy is facing a slowdown due to the Euro Area's debt crisis, which could lead to a double-dip scenario in the business cycle. The massive policy stimuli and increased government involvement are expected to negatively impact private investment, productivity, and jobs. The risk of a double-dip recession has substantially increased, but currency realignments and policy changes may help keep the recovery on track. In the first quarter of 2010, the output of the world's richest economies increased, with the United States and Japan showing growth, while the European Union lagged behind. High-frequency indicators suggest a slight rise in economic conditions, but the global outlook remains uncertain.