Unlocking the Power of Bayesian Statistics for More Accurate Predictions
Bayesian statistics is a method for handling complex statistical modeling by using beliefs as probability distributions. Parameters are treated as having distributions, and Bayes' Theorem is used to update beliefs with new information. Unlike frequentist statistics, Bayesian approach allows for statements like "the probability of an effect being larger than 0 is .93". A simple example of predicting PhD program admissions is used to illustrate the basic concepts of Bayesian statistics.