Stock market factors fail to predict future output growth, study finds.
The article examines popular stock market factors to see if they contain useful economic information and can predict future output growth. The researchers analyzed US stock portfolios from 1964 to 2019 and found that most factors do not independently predict stock returns or future output growth. However, these factors seem to have more impact during times of higher macroeconomic risk. The Fama and French three-factor model still provides better explanations for stock returns and economic information compared to other models. Overall, the study suggests that stock market factors may not offer significant insights into future market behavior or economic conditions.