Futures market leads in price discovery for Indian agricultural commodities.
The goal of the study was to understand how prices are determined and how volatility spreads between spot and futures markets for agricultural commodities in India. The researchers used statistical models to analyze data from the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange. They found that futures markets are better at predicting spot prices for most commodities, indicating they play a key role in price discovery. Additionally, there is a mutual influence between futures and spot markets, showing that futures markets are more efficient in determining prices for agricultural commodities in India.