Political turnover triggers sovereign defaults in stable countries, study finds.
The study looks at how different types of policymakers can affect a country's likelihood of defaulting on its debt. They find that a change in the type of policymaker in power can trigger a default, especially when economic conditions are poor and there is political stability. When there is high political stability, changes in policymakers can lead to weaker connections between economic conditions and default decisions, higher and more unpredictable interest rates, and lower borrowing levels after a default.