Decision Sciences
4 years ago

New model revolutionizes risky intertemporal choices, shaping future decision-making.

Psychological Review
An evaluation and comparison of models of risky intertemporal choice.
Ashley Luckman, Chris Donkin, Ben R. Newell

Paper Summary

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Risky intertemporal choices involve picking between options with different outcomes, chances of getting them, and time delays. Researchers tested 7 models on 3 common changes in choices across 6 types of risky intertemporal choices. The risky intertemporal choice heuristic (RITCH) model best matched data from almost 4,000 choices. This suggests that comparing attributes, not values, is key in making risky intertemporal choices. Translation-based models didn't predict the effects of certainty and immediacy changes as well. Future theories should treat risk and time separately and focus on attribute comparisons.