Track forecast errors lead to severe under-forecasting of rainfall in China.
The impact of track forecast error on tropical cyclone rainfall predictions in China was studied. By comparing forecasted rainfall with actual measurements, researchers found that errors in predicting the path of cyclones can lead to underestimating rainfall amounts. The larger the error in track forecasting, the greater the impact on rainfall predictions, especially up to 500 km away. A new method was developed to correct for these errors, resulting in improved rainfall forecasts, particularly for longer lead times.