Economics, Econometrics and Finance
4 years ago

The Great Moderation led to the shocking Great Recession surprise.

Liberty Street Economics
The Great Moderation, Forecast Uncertainty, and the Great Recession
Ging Cee Ng, Andrea Tambalotti

Paper Summary

The Great Recession was a big economic downturn that surprised many experts. They didn't see it coming because they were too confident after a period of stable economic growth called the Great Moderation. This study looks at how the Great Moderation made the Great Recession seem unlikely to economists.

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