Land use changes in the Qihe catchment in China have impacted ecosystem carbon storage. From 2005 to 2015, carbon density decreased, especially in low altitude areas due to construction and woodland degradation. Predictions for 2025 show that under ecological conservation, carbon storage and density will increase, mainly in higher altitude regions. Cultivated land protection slows down the decrease in carbon storage, while natural growth leads to a significant decrease. To enhance carbon sequestration and maintain food safety, land use planning should consider both ecological conservation and cultivated land protection scenarios.