Stock prices predict U.S. recessions better than other indicators.
The article looks at different financial factors to predict when the U.S. economy might go into a recession. They studied things like interest rates, stock prices, and the slope of the yield curve. Stock prices are good at predicting recessions in the short term, while the yield curve is better at predicting further ahead. Overall, the yield curve is the best predictor of a recession on its own compared to other financial indicators.