U.S. GDP growth to slow due to trade deficit and dollar decline.
The article predicts that the U.S. GDP will grow by 2.6% per year in the next decade. This growth will come from recovering from a low economic activity level at the start of the decade, as well as from factors like more people working, more capital being used, and productivity increasing. However, if the trade deficit decreases by 3% of GDP, it will reduce the output available for U.S. consumption and investment by 0.3% per year. Also, if the value of the dollar drops by 25%, the cost of imports will rise, reducing real incomes by 0.4% per year. After considering these effects, the net growth of goods and services available for U.S. consumption and investment will be 1.9% per year, the same as the past decade's average growth.