Terrain uncertainty impacts heavy rain prediction, revolutionizing ensemble forecasting accuracy.
Terrain uncertainty can affect weather predictions. Researchers tested a new perturbation scheme in an ensemble prediction system to improve forecasting accuracy during a heavy rain event in Beijing. Different perturbation techniques were used to account for uncertainties in initial conditions, model physics, and terrain representation. The study found that incorporating terrain perturbations into the prediction system helped better simulate the extreme rainfall event. This suggests that considering terrain uncertainties can enhance the accuracy of weather forecasts.