The article looks at why the US trade balance has been getting worse over time. It focuses on three main factors: US technology advancements, changes in government spending, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policies. By analyzing US data from 1982 to 2005, the researchers found that shocks like productivity improvements, technology changes, and government policies can explain the trade balance changes in the 1980s and early 2000s. However, these factors couldn't explain why the trade balance got worse in the late 1990s.